Monday, March 09, 2009

Cheltenham Supreme Novices' Free bet and analysis

Believe it or not, I used to be a horse racing writer and with Cheltenham starting on March 10 I thought I'd get back into it despite not having written about the noble beasts for nearly two years.

Horses come and go, the names change but the form figures remain the same. I have used John Whitley's excellent figures ever since I was able to get them free when I worked on the Teamtalk Racing Desk.

I subsequently went to work with John...though purely in an admin O Level maths not enough to even discuss the mechanics of his methodology.

So, I'm previewing here the first race at Cheltenham and anyone foolish enough to follow my selection can negate the loss by getting a Cheltenham free bet - worth about twenty five quid - by clicking the link above.

So here goes...might be a bit rusty but one thing, I won't be is influenced by the racing media because I've not read anything about this year's Festival.

"Alan King's Medermit has an excellent chance of rewarding backers in the opening race of the 2009 Cheltenham Festival (13:30 - Supreme Novices' Hurdle) with the gelding boasting the best UK form over hurdles this season - achieved when winning at Ascot on his latest start.

I'm finding this really difficult...having not done it for so long...and WTF have they done with the reliable old Racing Post site??!...thank god, Whitley's figures never change.

The lightly raced ex-french gelding look set to be suited by the likely strong pace of this novice contest and although some of the lesser exposed types could well progress past him, the five-year-old holds solid place claims at the very least if reproducing that Ascot form. More rain would be a slight concern but if it stays dry then a price around 4/1 a place or 16/1 for the win looks tempting.

If Medermit is close up, then not far behind him will be the consist Golan Way trained by Sheena West. Following three excellent performances at minor tracks, the novice put up a fantastic performance in a valuable contest at Cheltenham - a race where the form has worked out very well before finishing behind the selection in that race at Ascot. His Cheltenham effort proved he was a gelding with a future and lost nothing in defeat to the gutsy Medermit. Golan Way has an improving profile and could run a big race.

Cousin Vinny is a little over-hyped on what he has he written about so much because he won a race sponsored by the Irish horse race writers on his penultimate start? His price though is nothing short of shocking and although he ran well at Cheltenham in the bumper last season, this front running sort may find himself burnt out as they turn for home and at the end of the day be out for another Irish entrant...perhaps Kempes or Go Nativ**I think I don't like Cousin Vinny because the film took the piss out of stutters--of whom I am a (proud) member.

That was harder than I thought...will stick to poker in the future.

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